Unsupervised outlier detection applied to SARS-CoV-2 nucleotide sequences can identify sequences of common variants and other variants of interest (preprint)

As of February 2022, the GISAID database contains more than one million SARS-CoV-2 genomes, including several thousand nucleotide sequences for the most common variants such as delta or omicron. These SARS-CoV-2 strains have been collected from patients around the world since the beginning of the pandemic. We start by assessing the similarity of all pairs of nucleotide sequences using the Jaccard index and principal component analysis. As shown previously in the literature, an unsupervised cluster analysis applied to the SARS-CoV-2 genomes results in clusters of sequences according to certain characteristics such as their strain or their clade. Importantly, we observe that nucleotide sequences of common variants are often outliers in clusters of sequences stemming from variants identified earlier on during the pandemic. Motivated by this finding, we are interested in applying outlier detection to nucleotide sequences. We demonstrate that nucleotide sequences of common variants (such as alpha, delta, or omicron) can be identified solely based on a statistical outlier criterion. We argue that outlier detection might be a useful surveillance tool to identify emerging variants in real time as the pandemic progresses.

Unsupervised genome-wide cluster analysis: nucleotide sequences of the omicron variant of SARS-CoV-2 are similar to sequences from early 2020 (preprint)

The GISAID database contains more than 100,000 SARS-CoV-2 genomes, including sequences of the recently discovered SARS-CoV-2 omicron variant and of prior SARS-CoV-2 strains that have been collected from patients around the world since the beginning of the pandemic. We applied unsupervised cluster analysis to the SARS-CoV-2 genomes, assessing their similarity at a genome-wide level based on the Jaccard index and principal component analysis. Our analysis results show that the omicron variant sequences are most similar to sequences that have been submitted early in the pandemic around January 2020. Furthermore, the omicron variants in GISAID are spread across the entire range of the first principal component, suggesting that the strain has been in circulation for some time. This observation supports a long-term infection hypothesis as the omicron strain origin.

Mutations in SARS-CoV-2 spike protein and RNA polymerase complex are associated with COVID-19 mortality risk (preprint)

SARS-CoV-2 mortality has been extensively studied in relationship to a patient's predisposition to the disease. However, how sequence variations in the SARS-CoV-2 genome affect mortality is not understood. To address this issue, we used a whole-genome sequencing (WGS) association study to directly link death of SARS-CoV-2 patients with sequence variation in the viral genome. Specifically, we analyzed 3,626 single stranded RNA-genomes of SARS-CoV-2 patients in the GISAID database (Elbe and Buckland-Merrett, 2017; Shu and McCauley, 2017) with reported patient's health status from COVID-19, i.e. deceased versus non-deceased. In total, evaluating 28,492 loci of the viral genome for association with patient/host mortality, two loci, 12,053bp and 25,088bp, achieved genome-wide significance (p-values of 1.24e-12, and 1.24e-26, respectively). Mutations at 25,088bp occur in the S2 subunit of the SARS-CoV-2 spike protein, which plays a key role in viral entry of target host cells. Additionally, mutations at 12,053bp are within the ORF1ab gene, in a region encoding for the protein nsp7, which is necessary to form the RNA polymerase complex responsible for viral replication and transcription. Both mutations altered amino acid coding sequences, potentially imposing structural changes that could enhance viral infectivity and symptom severity, and may be important to consider as targets for therapeutic development.

Mutations in SARS-CoV-2 spike protein and RNA polymerase complex are associated with COVID-19 mortality risk (preprint)

SARS-CoV-2 mortality has been extensively studied in relationship to a patient's predisposition to the disease. However, how sequence variations in the SARS-CoV-2 genome affect mortality is not understood. To address this issue, we used a whole-genome sequencing (WGS) association study to directly link death of SARS-CoV-2 patients with sequence variation in the viral genome. Specifically, we analyzed 3,626 single stranded RNA-genomes of SARS-CoV-2 patients in the GISAID database (Elbe and Buckland-Merrett, 2017; Shu and McCauley, 2017) with reported patient’s health status from COVID-19, i.e. deceased versus non-deceased. In total, evaluating 28,492 loci of the viral genome for association with patient/host mortality, two loci, 12,053bp and 25,088bp, achieved genome-wide significance (p-values of 1.24e-12, and 1.24e-26, respectively). Mutations at 25,088bp occur in the S2 subunit of the SARS-CoV-2 spike protein, which plays a key role in viral entry of target host cells. Additionally, mutations at 12,053bp are within the ORF1ab gene, in a region encoding for the protein nsp7, which is necessary to form the RNA polymerase complex responsible for viral replication and transcription. Both mutations altered amino acid coding sequences, potentially imposing structural changes that could enhance viral infectivity and symptom severity, and may be important to consider as targets for therapeutic development.

Unsupervised cluster analysis of SARS-CoV-2 genomes indicates that recent (June 2020) cases in Beijing are from a genetic subgroup that consists of mostly European and South(east) Asian samples, of which the latter are the most recent (preprint)

Research efforts of the ongoing SARS-CoV-2 pandemic have focused on viral genome sequence analysis to understand how the virus spread across the globe. Here, we assess three recently identified SARS-CoV-2 genomes in Beijing from June 2020 and attempt to determine the origin of these genomes, made available in the GISAID database. The database contains fully or partially sequenced SARS-CoV-2 samples from laboratories around the world. Including the three new samples and excluding samples with missing annotations, we analyzed 7, 643 SARS-CoV-2 genomes. Using principal component analysis computed on a similarity matrix that compares all pairs of the SARS-CoV-2 nucleotide sequences at all loci simultaneously, using the Jaccard index, we find that the newly discovered virus genomes from Beijing are in a genetic cluster that consists mostly of cases from Europe and South(east) Asia. The sequences of the new cases are most related to virus genomes from a small number of cases from China (March 2020), cases from Europe (February to early May 2020), and cases from South(east) Asia (May to June 2020). These findings could suggest that the original cases of this genetic cluster originated from China in March 2020 and were re-introduced to China by transmissions from samples from South(east) Asia between April and June 2020.

Unsupervised cluster analysis of SARS-CoV-2 genomes reflects its geographic progression and identifies distinct genetic subgroups of SARS-CoV-2 virus (preprint)

Over 10,000 viral genome sequences of the SARS-CoV-2 virus have been made readily available during the ongoing coronavirus pandemic since the initial genome sequence of the virus was released on the open access Virological website (http://virological.org/) early on January 11. We utilize the published data on the single stranded RNAs of 11, 132 SARS-CoV-2 patients in the GISAID (Elbe and Buckland-Merrett, 2017; Shu and McCauley, 2017) database, which contains fully or partially sequenced SARS-CoV-2 samples from laboratories around the world. Among many important research questions which are currently being investigated, one aspect pertains to the genetic characterization/classification of the virus. We analyze data on the nucleotide sequencing of the virus and geographic information of a subset of 7, 640 SARS-CoV-2 patients without missing entries that are available in the GISAID database. Instead of modelling the mutation rate, applying phylogenetic tree approaches, etc., we here utilize a model-free clustering approach that compares the viruses at a genome-wide level. We apply principal component analysis to a similarity matrix that compares all pairs of these SARS-CoV-2 nucleotide sequences at all loci simultaneously, using the Jaccard index (Jaccard, 1901; Tan et al., 2005; Prokopenko et al., 2016; Schlauch et al., 2017). Our analysis results of the SARS-CoV-2 genome data illustrates the geographic and chronological progression of the virus, starting from the first cases that were observed in China to the current wave of cases in Europe and North America. This is in line with a phylogenetic analysis which we use to contrast our results. We also observe that, based on their sequence data, the SARS-CoV-2 viruses cluster in distinct genetic subgroups. It is the subject of ongoing research to examine whether the genetic subgroup could be related to diseases outcome and its potential implications for vaccine development.